Well I'm doing a fine job so far of making sure I play as little poker as possible! O well...3 more weeks of laziness allowed, and then its back to GrindCore. I would like to at least reach 30K hands this month, though I'm not figuring I will reach that point. I'm currently about 22.5K, which is officially my laziest month this year. I'm cutting myself some slack on that, and focusing on other poker related things right now.
Today was a very good day however. Had my intro session with a new student that went very well, and I think he's looking forward to smoothing out some of his rougher details. I was also approached by a backer today to stake me for live play. I'm currently a little light off-line, and thought some backing would help me get started splitting time between on-line and live poker. I am a huge bankroll nit and figured this would help me psychologically, especially while getting adjusted again to live play (which is a different beast than on-line play).
I was having a conversation with a player I respect the other day and we were talking about WR's in today's current 100nl (FTP) games. 2p2 has advocated often that 4pt/100+ is very attainable for the most solid player (top 5% maybe?). However, I think given the way the poker economy is evolving, that the WR cap is perhaps a bit lower than it was perceived to be previously. We were both thinking that 3pt/100 at 100nl might be the new “very attainable for the most solid players”.
Now I don't think, and I don't believe he does either, that the game has gotten difficult to the point of marginal WR. However, we do both acknowledge that 100nl (on FTP) has gotten harder and the regs have definitely improved over the last 7months. Anyone else agree or disagree here? I know, despite my current running this year, that reg quality has increased and the amount of huge weekend spew-fish have decreased. It can be assumed that the US recession isn't helping matters any, but also that the training tools available might be causing game conditions to noticeably change over the next year.
An on the note of improving players that will ruin the pond, my Poohbah is coming along well. I have a few people currently reading it and helping me with the logistics of the paper. It's a very lengthy work, and I suspect it will take people about 2-3 times of reading it to really start grasping all there is to it. I think the best way of describing this is a bastardization of ProfessionalNLHE, NLTAP, economics, and my thoughts. Hopefully that will help you understand what you're in for =)
Also, as I mentioned in my last post, I'm considering using this paper as a skeleton for an on-line FR NLHE book I'm looking to write. In thinking about it the other day, I was thinking of making this very Super System style, and was wondering if anyone had any interest in writing a chapter or so. The idea would be a compiled work with general play and then also specialized chapters based on that players personal strengths (like mine would be on bet sizing). Anyone interested in talking this idea out?
Alright, that's enough for tonight...a hand an then sleep:
Full Tilt Poker Game #7579732333: Table Hagan (deep) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:54:46 ET - 2008/08/09
Seat 1: EYEfoldAA ($199.90)
Seat 2: NDirish80 ($200)
Seat 3: constas ($313.15)
Seat 4: Its RIGGIGGITY ($101.50)
Seat 5: DerkeDerkeDerke ($74.05)
Seat 6: dachs ($100)
Seat 7: MySecretGarden ($145.15)
Seat 8: shibainu2 ($94)
Seat 9: marketa555 ($144.40)
shibainu2 posts the small blind of $0.50
marketa555 posts the big blind of $1
dachs posts $1
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Its RIGGIGGITY [8h 9h]
EYEfoldAA folds
NDirish80 folds
constas calls $1
Its RIGGIGGITY calls $1
DerkeDerkeDerke folds
dachs checks
MySecretGarden folds
shibainu2 raises to $5
marketa555 folds
constas calls $4
Its RIGGIGGITY calls $4
dachs calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Jh 9d 2h]
shibainu2 bets $21
constas calls $21
Its RIGGIGGITY raises to $96.50, and is all in
dachs folds
shibainu2 calls $68, and is all in
constas folds
Its RIGGIGGITY shows [8h 9h]
shibainu2 shows [Ad Jd]
Uncalled bet of $7.50 returned to Its RIGGIGGITY
*** TURN *** [Jh 9d 2h] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [Jh 9d 2h 8c] [3d]
Its RIGGIGGITY shows two pair, Nines and Eights
shibainu2 shows a pair of Jacks
Its RIGGIGGITY wins the pot ($217) with two pair, Nines and Eights
*SS*
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3 months ago
5 comments:
I've been noticing at really late/weird West Coast hours that the 100max and 50max FR NL games are turning back into fish tanks. I had never really grinded during these times but I'm starting to realize that the new FTP feature that tells you where someone is from is really telling. An influx of Asian and Euro players has really opened up the flood gates for fish. I played a few super spewy sessions where I noticed a lot of players just playing like they had absolutely no clue. Granted I was only 2 tabling and this was a small sample size but it's still worth looking into I'd say.
The games did not just get harder at NL100 over the last 7 months, but have been gradually getting harder for over 2 years.
I wrote a bit about this in January in my blog: http://dobieatwar.blogspot.com/2008/01/ive-lost-my-nl1-confidence.html
My previous results in NL($1) for 2007 are:
February-June: 3.3 PTBB/100 over 218k hands.
July-October: 2.1 PTBB/100 over 150k hands.
November-December: 0.4 PTBB/100 over 50k hands.
dobie: while i agree its been getting progressively harder (which is the natural evolution of such a game), I don't think you numbers show enough (more because of decreasing sample size + time).
on an semi related note...was watching an old video of mine (last November), and you were running 25/20 and doing that minR pf, then minBet MW. i still cant figure out why the minBet MW. there's no way u expect that to work the expected % of the time to be profitable. Any posts you've written on that?
*SS*
It was probably unsound play.
I think I was doing it for metagame, to induce bluff raises, rather than to get people to fold and win that way.
However rarely, maybe 1/12 times it would take down the pot. And, if it was a 4-way pot then it only needs to work 1/7 times or so to show an immediate profit.
Sometimes though if it was multiway and then the minbet would get it down to heads-up I would have an easier time bluffing the turn or river.
I only played that way on FTP, I don't play that way on PS because on FTP people actually fold, but on PS people will call you with king high etc.
When you talk about just win-rates specifically, I think its important to include the multi-table ratio.
Meaning, playing 16 tables, I might consider a 2ptbb win-rate very good. But playing less tables, I wouldnt consider 2ptbb good.
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